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Kuwaiti Dinar unchanged for days September 1, 2008

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For the past few days the US Dollar has been volatile while the KWD has remained unchanged at .26720 I presume this is the calm before the storm…

Fixing the Kuwaiti Dinar to the Dollar, again… April 8, 2008

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In order to remain on track for the single Gulf currency, Kuwait, which revalued its currency in May 2007, must fix its currency back to the Dollar, to be inline with the rest of the Gulf countries. The formation of the single currency, (rumored to be called the ‘Dinar’), cannot be created without the valuable Kuwaiti economy. Kuwait, is considered to have the most advanced, and stable, economy in the Gulf. Since all the countries are fixed to the Dollar, once Kuwait decides to re-enter it will be forced to peg again, which will not be to beneficial to the local economy. 

Why the single Gulf currency will not happen… April 7, 2008

Posted by mylastresort in analysis, bahrain, qatar, saudi arabia.
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Following the central bankers meeting in Doha this week its clear they are all enthusiastic and confident in the 2010 unified Gulf currency, known as the ‘Dinar’. The expected time frame for the single currency is on the extreme side of optimism, (also note, I am very skeptical that a single currency will be adopted in the first place). There are many obstacles that must be overcome before discussing a unified currency. The Gulf, although neighbors, do not share the same political veiws, economic reform or civil freedoms, among many other factors that will be of prime importance to the unification of the currencies.

Final day of Gulf Arab meetings April 7, 2008

Posted by mylastresort in analysis, bahrain, qatar, saudi arabia.
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Since today is the last day of the highly anticipated meeting of the Gulf Arab states many rumors have risen as to the future of the currency union of 2010. The meeting will conclude today in the Qatari capital of Doha. A statement by Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud al-Thani reiterated the Gulf’s commitment to a single currency, the same optimism is shared with all the member countries.

“There are plans by all competent institutions in the GCC to achieve that goal by that date… We set 2010 for the monetary union and we are still sticking to this date.”

- Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi, The United Arab Emirates central bank governor

Rumors that the Qatari Riyal and the UAE Dirham would be revalued were obviously dismissed by the governors” at the meeting. Any slight indication of a revaluation from the governors will spark a mass speculative attack on the currency forcing the central banks to reform.  (more…)

Gulf Arab inflation expected at 8% in 2008 April 1, 2008

Posted by mylastresort in analysis, bahrain, qatar, rumors, saudi arabia.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that it expected the average Gulf Arab inflation levels to increase in 2008 to 8% from 7% in last year. Inflation has been a  major problem in the Gulf arab region with migrants workers protesting and import prices increasing due to the dollar peg by Arab countries. As the US Dollar loses value the Gulf countries are forced to lower rates in succesion to the US’s Federal Reserve.

“The inflation rate in the Gulf was around 7 percent last year and we expect it to be seven to eight percent this year… On the demand side, there is a big push to expand government spending and liquidity is high in the system, which means people have more access to liquidity and more access to spending power”

- Mohsen Khan, IMF director of the ME

(more…)

Kuwaiti Dinar rises to strongest point March 27, 2008

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Dollar KD Graph

Kuwaiti Dinar rises to to its strongest point since dropping the peg.

  • Todays mid point     .26530 (3.7693)
  • Change (from previous day)      0.41%
  • Change since May 19, 2007      8.99%

The recent rise in the Kuwaiti Dinar is due to the dollars decline overnight to reach near record lows against the majors.

US Fed slashes rates, Gulf to follow March 19, 2008

Posted by mylastresort in analysis, bahrain, qatar, saudi arabia.
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US Fed lowers interest rates by 75 basis points (.75%). Gulf countries pegged to the US dollar must follow the Feds cuts. As of now Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have lowered their rates by the same points. news from UAE, Qatar, and Oman is still pending. (more…)

Kuwaiti Dinar at record high March 17, 2008

Posted by mylastresort in analysis, bahrain, qatar, saudi arabia.
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The Kuwaiti Dinar is at a record high against the Dollar. Kuwait let its Dinar sharply rise for the third trading session to a record high of .26600 fils (or $3.7594). The US Dollar plunged accross the board Monday on concerns that the financial crisis in the US will continue to deepen.

The Kuwaiti Dinar has gained 2% since Wednesday

The cumulative gain on the currency is now at 8.70% (expected to hit 15%). The forces on Gulf Arab states to revalue their currencies and drop their Dollar pegs is even more higher. The pressure on Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar & Bahrain is even greater as the US Dollar reaches record lows and their own economies surging on record level oil prices fuelling sharp inflation.

Kuwaiti Dinar rises 0.78% to .26910 March 13, 2008

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KWD rises 0.78%

Kuwait let its dinar currency rise 0.78% against the dollar on Thursday, the second-biggest one-day jump since it dropped its peg to the U.S. dollar in May and taking the cumulative gain to 7.45%. The dinar will trade around a mid-point of 0.26910 against the dollar, versus .27120 on Wednesday.

The change resulted in difference of 210pips (.00210) from that of yesterday. That is the biggest jump since July 25 when CBK allowed it to rise 1.74%. The main reason for the sudden appreciation is due to the growing inflation in the country.

Whats the BIG deal… On Wednesday a dealer selling USD @ CBK rate would have gained 20 pips from his bullish KWD position. The profits would have been 1,000 KD for every $5,000,000 invested in this strategy. Instead the sudden drop resulted in 11,000 KD profit when using the same strategy.